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Top stories

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Tokenized

Lighter Protocol TGE includes airdrop to points holders with at least 30% of tokens unlocked immediately

Oct 1, 9:01 PMMar 10, 9:58 PM

31.27%chance

418533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

675

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

3516399

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later or never

2025

2024

69

13

12

5

1

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.95%chance

89570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9720

103

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

24473

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.47%chance

133284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

Dec 21, 6:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.04%chance

103042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2295

436

Will the next major LLM by OpenAI use a new tokenizer?

Jun 17, 7:26 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

88.86%chance

482396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2499

660

Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?

Dec 14, 3:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.61%chance

91524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2325

430

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM

25.44%chance

81121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1712

584

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.98%chance

1250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

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