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Top stories

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Tokenized

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.91%chance

323831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7654

4646

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

91167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1871

535

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

51125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2067

484

Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?

Jun 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

41055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

555

What % of Anthropic's IPO share price will the PreStocks Anthropic token trade at?

May 11, 11:46 PMDec 31, 12:39 AM

68.32%chance

5681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

681

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.08%chance

3595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1280

782

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

6226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

858

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

933

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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