Tokenized News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Tokenized
OptionProbability
52
23
23
1
1
Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?
Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
98.95%chance
89570
OptionVotes
9720
103
What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?
Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
45073
OptionProbability
51
14
10
10
8
8
[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?
Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
38.5%chance
71195
OptionVotes
1264
791
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?
Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.51%chance
81152
OptionVotes
1856
539
The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
80.27%chance
41075
OptionVotes
2017
496
AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉
Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM
6.17%chance
12628
OptionVotes
1385
915
Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?
Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.43%chance
10623
OptionVotes
1141
876
Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?
Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60.98%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
800
Will $MARVIN token reach $500K market cap by June 1, 2026?
Mar 8, 6:51 PMJun 1, 12:00 AM
12.74%chance
3165
OptionVotes
154
90
Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.83%chance
2111
OptionVotes
1091
986
Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000