Too Big to Fail News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Jan 8, 5:27 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

3510993

OptionProbability

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337703

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

Will OpenAI receive a bailout from the US government by the end of 2028?

Nov 3, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.73%chance

131873

OptionVotes

YES

1615

619

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:12 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

101824

OptionProbability

April 1 2027, Later, or never

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q2 2024

2023

Q1 2024

What Year will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

71622

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

Later or never

2029

2025

2024

2023

Will Guyana suffer from the oil curse by 2035?

Jun 19, 11:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

30.26%chance

18572

OptionVotes

YES

1244

830

Is the brain's learning algorithm superior to backpropogation?

May 27, 7:23 PMMay 27, 10:59 PM

80.13%chance

3262

OptionVotes

YES

147

136

IRON MAN: Who will be the ultimate iron man, the last holding power?

Mar 2, 9:49 AMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

1115

OptionProbability

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Will Coco Gauff airball the 2026 WTA grass season again?

Mar 20, 1:10 AMJul 15, 11:59 PM

22.99%chance

383

OptionVotes

YES

183

will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27

Jun 27, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

362

OptionVotes

YES

128

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Will OpenAI receive a bailout from the US government by the end of 2028?

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

What Year will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Will Guyana suffer from the oil curse by 2035?

Is the brain's learning algorithm superior to backpropogation?

IRON MAN: Who will be the ultimate iron man, the last holding power?

Will Coco Gauff airball the 2026 WTA grass season again?

will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27

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