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What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

612904

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

YES

1214

837

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.88%chance

341153

OptionVotes

YES

1230

862

Will Albania be successful in entering European Union due to Using OpenAI tools?

Mar 7, 12:06 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13.18%chance

15536

OptionVotes

YES

1336

895

AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028

Nov 26, 1:52 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

29%chance

8381

OptionVotes

YES

156

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

207

108

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.18%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

1066

938

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Jun 25, 1:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.72%chance

7167

OptionVotes

YES

286

120

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Jul 11, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.48%chance

8167

OptionProbability

YES

273

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

[Objective/sentiment market hybrid] 2040 scientific consensus will be that hominins regularly used hand tools?

Jul 9, 2:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.91%chance

OptionVotes

YES

106

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

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What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Will Albania be successful in entering European Union due to Using OpenAI tools?

AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

[Objective/sentiment market hybrid] 2040 scientific consensus will be that hominins regularly used hand tools?

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

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