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Prediction markets for Tool Use API

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

17495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

83

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?

Jun 21, 10:38 PMJul 16, 7:57 AM

2190

OptionProbability

Above 1,000

Below 500

500 - 750

750 - 999

90

3

3

3

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

56.17%chance

9115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will I be able to connect my Quickbooks online data to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude before 2027?

Jan 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.96%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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