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Prediction markets for Tools

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.49%chance

463997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

838

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.25%chance

211799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

428

ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?

Dec 23, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.21%chance

111796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

223

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.22%chance

541632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

856

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Dec 30, 7:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.8%chance

151551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

98

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.33%chance

291385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

849

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

33.36%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

920

Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?

Jun 11, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will "Should you make stone tools?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How many eggplant tools will we get until the end of the year?

Sep 2, 1:39 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 19

20 - 59

60 - 99

100 - 139

140 - 179

180 - 220

Above 220

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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