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Tools News

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

433878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

731

OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?

Oct 26, 6:28 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

151990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.59%chance

181504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

611

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025?

Jan 1, 7:43 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

19.11%chance

191429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

827

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

848

If I make a tool for absolute pitch learning in adults, will anyone actually learn to have absolute pitch using it?

Aug 7, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM

59.39%chance

141197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1209

827

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

33.36%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

920

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.18%chance

6188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

Will "Should you make stone tools?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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