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Tools News

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

36.81%chance

196475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

292

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

443928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

788

OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?

Oct 26, 6:28 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

151990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.39%chance

201749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1371

465

ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?

Dec 23, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.98%chance

61624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

230

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Dec 30, 7:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

141541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2048

488

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.33%chance

291385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

849

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.64%chance

7198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

Will "Should you make stone tools?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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