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Top stories

BASIS Tucson North Tops U.S. News High School Rankings as Arizona Dominates List

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Top 100

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

17.11%chance

26748776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9567

1076

🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?

Mar 27, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

14014241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3300

304

Putnam Top 100 #2: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2026?

May 4, 8:32 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.89%chance

136304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11667

3623

When will a female chess player next rank in the top 10 players according to the FIDE standard top 100 ranking?

Mar 15, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

141692

OptionProbability

In or before 2039

In or before 2034

In or before 2029

In or before 2028

In or before 2027

In or before 2026

In 2024

In or before 2025

45

35

18

14

7

3

1

1

Will "Humming is not a free $100 bill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 7, 10:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16%chance

111338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

874

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.27%chance

91223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

551

Which low tiers will appear in the 2025 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end top 100 player rankings?

Dec 3, 1:50 AMJan 1, 3:03 AM

9551

OptionProbability

Luigi

Donkey Kong

Young Link

Link

Zelda

Ganondorf

Dr. Mario

Ness

Mario

Pichu

Roy

Mr. Game and Watch

Mewtwo

Bowser

Kirby

99

98

95

94

91

72

69

34

17

11

9

8

6

6

4

Will "Consider not donating under $100 to political..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.44%chance

4353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

954

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will "Humming is not a free $100 bill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 7, 10:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16%chance

2157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

874

Putnam Top 100 #4: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2028?

May 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.62%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

22

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