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Prediction markets for Top 14

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

13498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

843

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

737

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

New CEO at two of 14 top companies by mid 2027

May 29, 7:11 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

59%chance

3200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

New CEO at 3 of 14 top companies by mid 2027

May 29, 7:11 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

47.5%chance

3171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 10, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.84%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

781

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 26, 5:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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