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Prediction markets for Top 20

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

401281850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15578

2885

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.33%chance

647331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

250

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

2.11%chance

135907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6803

147

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

46.3%chance

261903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

369

Will the new programming language Mojo enter the TIOBE Top 20 popularity index before 2027?

May 5, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.09%chance

291774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

812

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

181758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.82%chance

5402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will the Nim programming language be in the top 20 in the TIOBE index by the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

17.47%chance

10146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

123

Which AI app will rank highest on the US App Store Top Free chart on Nov 20, 2026?

Oct 26, 7:55 AMNov 20, 5:00 PM

226

OptionProbability

Muse from Meta

ChatGPT

Claude by Anthropic

Google Gemini

Grok

38

19

15

15

12

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a fully Al-generated song enter the Top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2028?

Oct 12, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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