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Prediction markets for Top 20

Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

4115184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

190

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.17%chance

239890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4394

449

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.5%chance

474461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

841

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

45%chance

251883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

385

Will the new programming language Mojo enter the TIOBE Top 20 popularity index by 2026?

May 5, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16%chance

251224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

894

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.44%chance

131013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

927

Will King Abdulaziz University (KAU in Saudi Arabia) be among the top 20 universities in the world by 2026?

Oct 21, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.95%chance

8414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

567

89

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

43.11%chance

4152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

Will the Nim programming language be in the top 20 in the TIOBE index by the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

19.91%chance

796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

130

Will any club in USL's new first division league reach the top 20 of the world's most valuable soccer clubs before 2050?

Mar 24, 6:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Which of the following companies will be in the top 20 companies in the world by market cap on Jan 1st 2050?

Jan 28, 4:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

454

OptionProbability

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC

NVIDIA

Tesla

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Tencent

Broadcom

Samsung Electronics

Saudi Aramco

ASML Holding

Alibaba

BYD Company

Berkshire Hathaway

Reliance Industries

Exxon Mobil

Mastercard

JPMorgan Chase

UnitedHealth Group

Johnson & Johnson

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Visa

Walmart

55

55

55

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

45

45

40

40

40

40

40

31

31

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