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Prediction markets for Top 20

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

398272514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10331

3557

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

2.11%chance

135907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6803

147

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.48%chance

595891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

699

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

46.3%chance

261903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

369

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

181758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

Will the new programming language Mojo enter the TIOBE Top 20 popularity index before 2027?

May 5, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.09%chance

281754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

812

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.82%chance

5402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will any of McKinsey, BCG, or Bain rank in the top 20 of Universum’s 2026 US business/commerce student rankings?

Jan 12, 12:48 AMOct 30, 10:59 PM

29.34%chance

7252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

156

Which of the following companies will be in the top 20 companies in the world by market cap on Jan 1st 2050?

Jan 28, 4:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11157

OptionProbability

Microsoft

NVIDIA

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC

Apple

Samsung Electronics

ASML Holding

Tesla

Amazon

Tencent

Broadcom

Alibaba

BYD Company

Saudi Aramco

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Reliance Industries

Berkshire Hathaway

Exxon Mobil

Mastercard

Johnson & Johnson

JPMorgan Chase

UnitedHealth Group

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Visa

Walmart

60

58

55

55

52

52

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

45

45

41

41

40

40

38

38

38

31

31

Will the Nim programming language be in the top 20 in the TIOBE index by the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

17.47%chance

10146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

123

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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