Top 30 News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Top 30
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83.52%chance
454256
OptionVotes
1764
571
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%chance
123209
OptionVotes
6132
3376
If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.34%chance
252192
OptionVotes
992
790
Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?
Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.84%chance
331440
OptionVotes
2655
1053
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM
64.02%chance
20691
OptionVotes
1093
775
OptionVotes
3619
3387
Will any model of the LMSYS chatbot arena top 30 at the end of 2025 use Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN)?
May 6, 10:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
7.65%chance
10379
OptionVotes
1308
924
Medical researchers publish papers crediting OpenAI tools with major progress in any of 30 top diseases by mid 2027
Feb 25, 8:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
23%chance
7334
OptionVotes
218
120
Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.14%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1252
964
Will "Notifications Received in 30 Minutes of Class" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 27, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
35.36%chance
5237
OptionVotes
1185
353
Will Magnus Carlsen be the world’s top-ranked chess player on November 30?
Jan 17, 2:33 AMDec 2, 4:59 AM
85.3%chance
6186
OptionVotes
241
42
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
56%chance
3128
OptionVotes
1128
886