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Top 40 News

Who will be the F1 World Champion (WDC) in 2025?

Sep 20, 12:12 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

10946111

OptionProbability

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

George Russell (Mercedes)

Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Other

74

24

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we try to deflect asteroid 2024 YR4 before 2032-12-22?

Feb 6, 1:54 AMDec 23, 3:59 AM

2%chance

3326540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7001

143

Will the US raise top capital gains tax rate to > 40%, with >15% unrealized capital gains tax, by EOY 2025?

Apr 26, 3:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

101140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

43

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

32.9%chance

311130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

686

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.44%chance

131013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

927

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.94%chance

13712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

924

If the US Women were considered a country, will they be in the Top 3 for the gold medal count at the 2028 Olympics?

Aug 11, 5:35 PMAug 19, 6:59 AM

68.84%chance

5500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

673

LeBron James - How many points will he score in the NBA before his retirement?

Mar 3, 6:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9472

OptionProbability

43,000 or more

Between 42,000 and 42,999

Between 40,000 and 40,999

Between 41,000 and 41,999

81

17

1

1

🏦 The All Memeing Bank 🏦 - will I lend more than 100k mana in 2025?

Apr 14, 3:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

6249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?

Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.76%chance

6181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

401

148

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

What will the top estate tax rate be on estates taxed in 2054 in the USA?

Jan 17, 10:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

[20%, 30%)

There will be no estate/gift/inheritance tax in 2054

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[30%, 40%)

[40%, 50%)

[50%, 70%)

[70%, 90%)

[90%, 100%)

100%

22

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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