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Prediction markets for Top AI

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.5%chance

404282020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15748

2869

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

46

43

6

2

1

1

1

0

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.16%chance

8015146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1696

591

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.01%chance

7513000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

588

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

67.89%chance

676430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

640

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79%chance

432588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

32

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.11%chance

412279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

288

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

88% or higher

25

25

25

25

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