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Prediction markets for Top AI

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.31%chance

290107971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5218

4875

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2113569

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

38

35

9

7

3

3

3

3

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

6610074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

299

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

64.31%chance

524635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1343

695

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

233355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

942

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.45%chance

301170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

542

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.72%chance

31917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

822

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

Will "The Hidden Cost of Our Lies to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 4:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 5:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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