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Prediction markets for Top AI Companies

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.25%chance

14918068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10080

9921

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 8:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

8312770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20%chance

132932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company

Jan 5, 8:30 AMJan 5, 8:30 AM

70%chance

7411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

66

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.97%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

904

Will "Frontier AI companies probably can't leave the US" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 27, 7:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.75%chance

367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

997

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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