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Prediction markets for Top AI Companies

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.57%chance

15118150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10008

9979

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 8:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

8312820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

27.02%chance

133109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Name something AI has gotten crazy good at in the last year. (Bilt Rent Free Jul 1, 2026)

Jun 25, 5:49 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

241433

OptionProbability

Video/image gen

Coding

Nothing

Taking jobs

Research

Lying

Reasoning

Music gen

Therapy

Travel planning

Recipes

Automation

77

70

35

31

30

23

22

20

14

12

11

7

Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company

Jan 5, 8:30 AMJan 5, 8:30 AM

70%chance

9501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

66

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.97%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

904

Will "Frontier AI companies probably can't leave the US" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 27, 7:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.75%chance

367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

997

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

Will "A frontier AI company should shut down" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 7:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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