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Prediction markets for Top AI Companies

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

14818058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10070

9929

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 8:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.94%chance

8312703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

685

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

122555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

511

[Carlini questions] A highly-popular SOTA AI system is supported by advertising

Mar 24, 2:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3814

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

94

93

93

92

4

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company

Jan 5, 8:30 AMJan 5, 8:30 AM

26.76%chance

389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

18

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

62

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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