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Prediction markets for Top Four

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

117430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8928

3471

By when will 5% of Americans cite "advancement of computers/technology" as the US's biggest problem? (Gallup)

Feb 6, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

233903

OptionProbability

By end of 2035

By end of 2033

By end of 2034

By end of 2031

By end of 2032

By end of 2030

By end of 2029

By end of 2028

By end of 2027

Does not reach 5% before 2036

By end of 2026

71

69

69

68

68

66

65

64

47

27

2

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

193152

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Mark Kelly

Ruben Gallego

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Rahm Emanuel

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Tim Walz

Josh Green

72

48

40

38

34

32

27

25

24

20

19

16

15

12

9

8

8

5

5

EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?

Jul 11, 10:03 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

64.29%chance

13947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

692

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

NO

265

222

Who will finish first in the 2028 top-four primary for U.S. Senate in Alaska?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMAug 16, 12:00 PM

150

OptionProbability

Other

Lisa Murkowski

Mike Dunleavy

42

40

18

Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.55%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

962

Will "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

Above 5

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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