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Prediction markets for Top Four

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.19%chance

3725189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

590

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182915

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

Jon Ossoff

Andy Beshear

Ruben Gallego

Gretchen Whitmer

Ro Khanna

Wes Moore

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Josh Green

Rahm Emanuel

75

48

38

37

32

27

27

27

24

20

20

16

15

12

10

8

8

5

4

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will Lincoln City get promoted from league one to the Championship this season (25/26)

Jan 14, 12:11 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2702

OptionProbability

Yes

No

98

2

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Which team will win M.League 2025-26?

Sep 16, 1:18 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

3540

OptionProbability

EX Furinkazan (EX風林火山)

KONAMI Mahjong Fight Club (麻雀格闘倶楽部)

BEAST X

Akasaka Drivens (ドリブンズ)

Shibuya ABEMAS

SegaSammy Phoenix (セガサミーフェニックス)

TEAM RAIDEN (雷電)

EARTH JETS

KADOKAWA Sakura Knights (サクラナイツ)

U-NEXT Pirates

49

11

7

6

6

6

4

3

3

3

Where will Mike McDaniel coach in 2026??

Jan 14, 4:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5378

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Chargers

Other

Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants

Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles

93

2

1

1

1

1

1

Vincent Keymer reaches top 3 in classical FIDE world ranking by end of March 2026?

Nov 17, 6:35 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

30.06%chance

5370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

66

Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Who will win the Women's SVNS 2 Series?

Jan 19, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

142

OptionProbability

Kenya

China

South Africa

Spain

Thailand

Brazil

29

22

21

11

8

8

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