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Top Four News

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

34.04%chance

4330391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

435

Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?

Dec 7, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1615685

OptionProbability

Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz

Alexander Zverev

Taylor Fritz

Novak Djokovic

Casper Ruud

Alex De Minaur

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Daniil Medvedev

Other

70

34

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Winner of the 2026 Premier League Darts

Jan 6, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

154731

OptionProbability

Luke Littler

Gerwyn Price

Jonny Clayton

Luke Humphries

Michael van Gerwen

Gian van Veen

Stephen Bunting

Josh Rock

52

13

12

10

6

4

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?

Nov 14, 3:53 AMNov 22, 11:59 PM

122265

OptionProbability

Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz

Alexander Zverev

Novak Djokovic

Taylor Fritz

Alex de Minaur

Félix Auger-Aliassime

Lorenzo Musetti

Ben Shelton

Jack Draper

Other

80

14

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

2026 AFL home-and-away season prop bets

Feb 12, 11:36 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

4633

OptionProbability

Sydney to finish in the top six

Geelong to finish in the top four

Bulldogs to finish in the top six

North Melbourne to finish in the top ten

Brisbane and Geelong to each start 0-2

Port Adelaide to be on top of the ladder at the end of Round 5

91

40

32

29

0

0

Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

will one of these win the world cup 2026

Feb 28, 8:19 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

8280

OptionProbability

spain

argentina

france

56

23

21

Who will win the Women's SVNS Grand Finals?

Apr 7, 9:47 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1175

OptionProbability

New Zealand

Australia

France

United States

Canada

Fiji

Japan

Great Britain

Argentina

Brazil

South Africa

Spain

28

25

9

9

7

6

6

2

2

2

2

2

Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.55%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

962

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