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Top Four News

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

29.55%chance

106130950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

380

Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?

Dec 7, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2018547

OptionProbability

Jannik Sinner

Alexander Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz

Taylor Fritz

Novak Djokovic

Casper Ruud

Alex De Minaur

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Daniil Medvedev

Other

52

47

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

192932

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

Jon Ossoff

Andy Beshear

Ruben Gallego

Gretchen Whitmer

Ro Khanna

Wes Moore

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Tim Walz

Rahm Emanuel

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Josh Green

75

48

38

38

32

27

27

27

24

20

20

16

15

12

10

9

8

8

5

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?

Jul 11, 10:03 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

45.91%chance

10531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?

Mar 26, 2:31 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

11323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

NO

265

222

Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.55%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

962

Will "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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