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Prediction markets for Top Pick

Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

15.78%chance

4319933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

194

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM

15.23%chance

91581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Which team will Breece Hall play for in 2026?

Feb 19, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5623

OptionProbability

New York Jets

Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans

Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

Other

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

37.21%chance

4333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.88%chance

7160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

May 20, 7:06 PMJun 26, 8:00 PM

7123

OptionProbability

Tyran Stokes

Other

Caleb Holt

Jordan Smith

Christian Collins

Miikka Muurinen

Brandon McCoy

Alijah Arenas

Jason Crowe Jr.

Jalen Montonati

Anthony Thompson

Darryn Peterson

Mikel Brown Jr.

17

14

13

11

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Who will be the 2027 NFL offensive rookie of the year?

May 23, 12:02 AMFeb 12, 12:59 AM

664

OptionProbability

Other

Fernando Mendoza

Jeremiah Love

Carnell Tate

58

16

15

12

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