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Top Pick News

Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

12.72%chance

4219843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2330

164

Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Jan 20, 10:18 AMApr 24, 3:59 AM

289192

OptionProbability

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Sonny Styles

Spencer Fano

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

Caleb Downs

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M

Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

97

96

61

47

47

40

31

26

23

22

15

14

10

7

5

4

3

1

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM

15.23%chance

91581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

2026 NBA MVP?

Feb 14, 2:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1555

OptionProbability

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Victor Wembynama

Nikola Jokic

Other

Luka Doncic

Cade Cunningham

Giannis Antetukempo

Pat Spencer

50

26

6

5

4

4

4

1

Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NBA Draft?

Mar 10, 12:19 PMJun 25, 7:00 PM

8475

OptionProbability

Cameron Boozer

Darryn Peterson

AJ Dybantsa

Kingston Flemings

Caleb Wilson

Darius Acuff Jr.

Keaton Wagler

Hannes Steinbach

Nate Ament

Mikel Brown Jr.

Brayden Burries

Labaron Philon

Jayden Quaintance

Braylon Mullins

Chris Cenac Jr.

Koa Peat

Amari Allen

Killyan Toure

80

76

76

70

69

36

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Which team will Breece Hall play for in 2026?

Feb 19, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5373

OptionProbability

New York Jets

Other

Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans

Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

89

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Who will be the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Apr 13, 4:34 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

12225

OptionProbability

AJ Dybantsa

Darryn Peterson

Cameron Boozer

Other

46

21

17

16

How many Ohio State players will be drafted in the Top Ten of the NFL Draft?

Mar 5, 2:59 AMApr 23, 11:59 PM

2173

OptionProbability

Four or more

Three

Two

One or fewer

48

38

9

6

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.91%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Which position group will produce the most first-round selections in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Mar 3, 10:30 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

451

OptionProbability

Defensive Back (Safety/Cornerback)

Offensive Line (Tackle/Guard)

Wide Receiver

Edge Rusher / Defensive End

Linebacker

41

22

15

11

11

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

May 20, 7:06 PMJun 26, 8:00 PM

430

OptionProbability

Tyran Stokes

Other

Caleb Holt

Christian Collins

Miikka Muurinen

Brandon McCoy

Alijah Arenas

Jason Crowe Jr.

Jalen Montonati

Jordan Smith

Anthony Thompson

Darryn Peterson

Mikel Brown Jr.

20

10

8

8

8

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

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