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Top stories

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Authors

10

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Top Stories

Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?

Jan 11, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.7%chance

151883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

681

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.05%chance

201191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

771

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Oct 12, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16916

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Never

44

15

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Major news report of ideological filtering of would-be resident in Praxis city project (before 2027)

Sep 15, 7:21 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

72.55%chance

7789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

96

Will "Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 12:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

85.32%chance

12755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

46

Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.9%chance

24688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

974

Will Sabo or Dragon fight Akainu? (With or without Luffy)

Mar 4, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21557

OptionProbability

mainly Luffy, Sabo helps

mainly Dragon

mainly Sabo

mainly Luffy, Dragon helps

None of these happen, only Luffy fights him alone

mainly Luffy, both of them help

79

77

54

54

54

50

When will the top chatbot stop mentioning unimportant details from the prompt? (read description)

Jul 20, 10:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3106

OptionProbability

2026

2025

50

41

Major news report linking Praxis city project and (neo) Feudalism (before 2027)

Sep 14, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM

81.29%chance

494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

57

Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 30, 9:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

90

When will a third Top Gun movie be released?

Oct 21, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

468

OptionProbability

2031

2028

2029

2030

Other

2032

2033

23

14

14

14

14

12

8

🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030

Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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