Top Trader News

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.48%chance

595891

OptionVotes

YES

1288

699

Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026?

May 18, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92488

OptionProbability

No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026

Yes, in Q4 2026

Yes, in Q2 2026

Yes, in Q3 2026

Greatest Physicist of All Time

Jul 21, 10:51 PMJul 22, 10:14 PM

242270

OptionProbability

Einstein

Newton

Maxwell

Someone who solves quantum gravity

Dirac

Richard P. Feynman

Bohr

Schrödinger

Heisenberg

Planck

Pauli

Fermi

Boltzmann

Johannes Kepler

Bose

Someone to cause a paradigm shift in understanding the physics of experience

Lorentz

Emmy Noether

Someone with high achievement in experimental physics

Someone who convincingly replaces quantum mechanics with a better framework

Poincaré

Stephen Hawking

Tycho Brahe

Demokritos (sp)

Shen Kuo

Ibn al-Haytham

Archimedes

Ernst Mach

Roger Penrose

@121

Heisenburger

Will Manifold Markets have a manifold market?

Dec 20, 7:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.38%chance

201300

OptionVotes

YES

1715

583

Will "resolves to AI / LLM decision" be a Manifold feature before 2030, and will it be in common use?

Jan 22, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131106

OptionProbability

Yes, and it will be commonly used, including on markets created before its release (4)

The feature will not exist (0)

Yes, and it will be commonly used by mods (3)

Yes, and markets that will use it will be commonly created (2)

Yes, but it is not commonly used (1)

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

1107

931

Will my Democrats win Texas Senate election? Market have 350 traders before 7pm est election day 2026?

Sep 7, 8:11 AMNov 3, 6:59 PM

71%chance

3670

OptionVotes

YES

1565

639

Will I have a popular market during 8 months in 2026?

Jan 19, 2:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.32%chance

10143

OptionVotes

YES

232

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

May 20, 7:06 PMJun 26, 8:00 PM

7123

OptionProbability

Tyran Stokes

Other

Caleb Holt

Jordan Smith

Christian Collins

Miikka Muurinen

Brandon McCoy

Alijah Arenas

Jason Crowe Jr.

Jalen Montonati

Anthony Thompson

Darryn Peterson

Mikel Brown Jr.

weird al will release a parody of a billboard top 100 song in 2026

Apr 19, 9:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.29%chance

978

OptionVotes

YES

130

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Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026?

Greatest Physicist of All Time

Will Manifold Markets have a manifold market?

Will "resolves to AI / LLM decision" be a Manifold feature before 2030, and will it be in common use?

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Will my Democrats win Texas Senate election? Market have 350 traders before 7pm est election day 2026?

Will I have a popular market during 8 months in 2026?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

weird al will release a parody of a billboard top 100 song in 2026

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