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Prediction markets for TOPS

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

398272514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10331

3557

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571502

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

55

38

2

2

1

1

1

1

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3938880

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

<0.5%

1-1.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

3-4%

4-5%

5-10%

≥10%

47

19

18

6

3

2

2

2

1

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2333825

OptionProbability

5

4

6 - 7

3

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

0

1

2

27

24

21

12

8

3

2

1

1

1

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.9%chance

1418449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2306

1744

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.57%chance

7513265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

791

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.69%chance

469713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8733

272

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

506411

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

35

31

22

7

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

60.88%chance

676175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

750

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.27%chance

7543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

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