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Prediction markets for TOPS

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

401281850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15578

2885

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

46

43

6

2

1

1

1

0

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4653117

OptionProbability

1-1.5%

1.5-2%

0.5-1%

2-3%

<0.5%

3-4%

4-5%

5-10%

≥10%

61

15

12

4

2

2

2

2

1

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.97%chance

1418493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2262

1776

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.01%chance

7513000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

588

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

506452

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

36

32

19

8

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

67.89%chance

676430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

640

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.27%chance

7543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

88% or higher

25

25

25

25

Who will finish first in the 2028 top-two primary for governor in Washington?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMAug 2, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Bob Ferguson

Other

Jim Walsh

70

18

12

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