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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Taylor Swift dies
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
A woman is president of the United States
Taylor Swift goes to Space
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl
Reputation (TV) is released
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
The UN has a new member state
There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty
Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
The United States reports a Recession
A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement
Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
Jimmy Carter Dies
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency
Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums
Taylor Swift gets engaged
Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs
Pope Francis ceases to be Pope
Bitcoin goes below $100k
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51
19
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1105
949
OptionVotes
YES
NO
178
56
OptionProbability
Project Hail Mary
Hyperion
Mistborn
Children of Blood and Bone
Old Man's War
The Way of Kings
The Amulet of Samarkand
Fourth Wing
The Player of Games
A Court of Thorns and Roses
The Lies of Locke Lamora
Revelation Space
The Final Empire
The Blade Itself
Assassin's Apprentice
A Fire Upon the Deep
Piranesi
Ancillary Justice
The Mote in God's Eye
Use of Weapons
Consider Phlebas
A Deepness in the Sky
Permutation City
Shards of Honor
The Left Hand of Darkness
The Forever War
Blindsight
Consider Phlebas
The Name of the Wind
Stranger in a Strange Land
The Shadow of the Torturer
The Diamond Age
Kushiel's Dart
We Are Legion
The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect
Rant: The Oral Biography of Buster Casey
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
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65
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62
61
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50
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4
OptionProbability
Project Hail Mary
The Metropolitan Man
Worth the Candle
The Black Company
Consider Phlebas
Grog (by RW Krpoun)
The Torture Camp on Paradise Street
House of Leaves
HPMOR
The Orphanage
The Shadow in the East
Red Famine
Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
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77
70
69
61
59
59
57
56
52
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50
39
39
OptionProbability
death stranding 2 releases
bitcoin reaches 80k
end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)
Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )
Silksong
mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube
Alec Baldwin case ends
Trump running mate announced
2024 election is called by AP
Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access
The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates
gta 6 releases
Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Joe Biden passes away or is murdered
Solar panels removed from the White House (again).
tortured poet's department releases
the end of manifest 2024
the start of manifest 2024
Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something
julian Assange extradited to usa
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases
he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced
Windows 12 released
the ukraine russia war ends
human walks on the moon again
The last case of Guinea worm in humans
binance cease operating
trump found guilty of a crime
azerbaijian invades armenia
destiny goes on joe rogan
Ukraine joins NATO
first female president
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26
24
20
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13
9
8
3
3
OptionProbability
Other "loud" outcome
non-hedonic utilitronium
Orgasmium
Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems
initiate vacuum collapse
It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.
Paperclips or widgets
Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it
Literal rats on literal heroin
Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes
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1
OptionProbability
Economically outcompete human civilization, accumulating all resources and ending civilization as a side effect
Wipe them out
fully satisfy all our deepest desires
Efficiently convert them to paperclips
Other
Proceeds to achieve its unaligned goals while ruling over humans as a dictator
Everybody drops dead at the same time
Keep them as pets
Tortures us bringing the greatest suffering possible
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14
12
12
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1
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
986
982
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1006
990
OptionProbability
Both
Just Rhipley
Just strawhat women(Nami, Robin)
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