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Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

9.8%chance

118231887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2691

1006

Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?

Dec 5, 3:12 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

64.59%chance

6416911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

741

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

8011179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

1138

Will Nvidia's market cap exceed 10% of the total S&P 500 market cap by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:44 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

47.64%chance

224128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

957

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.03%chance

133686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11987

8342

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.39%chance

6801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

893

Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?

Sep 29, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.18%chance

17671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

978

Will the total global population exceed 8.5 billion before the end of 2031

Sep 16, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.93%chance

22627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

971

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.12%chance

6615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Will Bushveld Minerals’ total vanadium production (mtV or contained V) in 2027 be at least 50% higher than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:43 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

55.31%chance

6333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

899

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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