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Prediction markets for Tournaments

Which chess players will qualify for the 2026 FIDE Candidates tournament?

Dec 13, 9:13 PMJul 31, 8:59 PM

71104520

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Anish Giri

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Wei Yi

Andrey Esipenko

Javokhir Sindarov

Other (someone else not on this list)

Ding Liren

Alireza Firouzja

Wesley So

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Levon Aronian

Richard Rapport

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Arjun Erigaisi

Vincent Keymer

Daniil Dubov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Hans Niemann

Wang Hao

Yu Yangyi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Magnus Carlsen

Vidit Gujrathi

David Howell

Sam Shankland

Nihal Sarin

Aravindh Chithambaram

Parham Maghsoodloo

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Vladislav Artemiev

Nijat Abasov

Teimour Radjabov

Ray Robson

Vladimir Fedoseev

Lê Quang Liêm

Leinier Dominguez

Alexander Grischuk

99

99

99

99

99

99

99

99

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Tiger Woods Will Win Another PGA Tournament

Aug 9, 3:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.86%chance

3812040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

838

Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

Nov 26, 10:35 PMApr 16, 10:59 PM

165901

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura*

Praggnanandhaa R**

Wei Yi

Anish Giri

Javokhir Sindarov

Andrey Esipenko

Matthias Blübaum

26

21

17

11

11

7

4

4

Kramnik's FIDE title revoked or temp/permenantly banned from FIDE rated tournaments before 2026?

Oct 27, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.2%chance

133095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?

Dec 22, 11:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.84%chance

242115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2461

867

Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

15.45%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

811

By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them?

Feb 13, 6:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.05%chance

121017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1954

874

Who will win the 2026 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]?

Nov 27, 8:09 PMMay 23, 10:59 PM

3702

OptionProbability

Monta Vista H.S. (Cupertino, CA)

Troy H.S. (Fullerton, CA)

Seven Lakes H.S. (Katy, TX)

Mason H.S. (Mason, OH)

Solon H.S. (Solon, OH)

Harriton H.S. (Rosemont, PA)

Montgomery H.S. (Skillman, NJ)

New Trier H.S. (Winnetka, IL)

Madison West H.S. (Madison, WI)

Lexington H.S. (Lexington, MA)

Acton-Boxborough Regional H.S. (Acton, MA)

Mountain View H.S. (Mountain View, CA)

Other

Marquette University H.S. (Milwaukee, WI)

'Iolani School (Honolulu, HI)

Novi H.S. (Novi, MI)

Pioneer H.S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

Liberal Arts and Science Academy (Austin, TX)

Castro Valley H.S. (Castro Valley, CA)

West Windsor-Plainsboro H.S. South (West Windsor, NJ)

23

20

14

13

11

8

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will someone place in top 8 of a 100+ player Super Smash Bros tournament with a Neuralink controller by end of 2028?

Sep 11, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.63%chance

8396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

🏀 Which team will win the 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament (March Madness)?

Apr 8, 12:41 PMApr 6, 11:59 PM

4140

OptionProbability

Purdue

Houston

Other

UConn

Duke

Alabama

Wisconsin

Auburn

Florida

Texas Tech

Arizona

Iowa State

Tennessee

Kentucky

Baylor

Illinois

Gonzaga

Kansas

Michigan State

9

9

8

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles

Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

50

50

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