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Has NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?

Jul 27, 2:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.46%chance

4811172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will Kendrick Lamar feature Drake (or vice versa), on a new track before 2030?

May 4, 6:43 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

8.85%chance

162229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2820

598

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will there be a race of commercial self-driving cars on a closed race track by end of 2029.

Sep 26, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.11%chance

6260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

798

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.25%chance

11211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

959

Will Apple’s hand tracking technology from Vision Pro be used to train robots by 2028?

Oct 12, 8:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.43%chance

4176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

629

In Mario Kart World, will players be able to reliably avoid highway tracks in public matchmaking in 2026?

Jan 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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