Trade Deal News

YES

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

European Union

Japan

South Korea

Mexico

China

India

Canada

Australia

Germany

France

Brazil

Argentina

NO

YES

NO

YES

The deal is actually signed (still resolves YES even if modifications are made to the deal)

Proposed reconstruction and investment fund is initiated by the end of 2026 (it actually begins to fund reconstruction projects and receive investments/mineral profits)

Either the US or Ukraine demand to renegotiate the deal by the end of Trump's second term

American companies secure >33% of the monetary value of Ukrainian post-war reconstruction contracts

US company or government takes ownership and operation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

YES

New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)

Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)

Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo

New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

NO

YES