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Prediction markets for Trade to Earn

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

2517662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

624

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMApr 1, 9:48 AM

10.75%chance

467503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2885

348

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

May 2, 4:09 PMJun 11, 6:59 PM

23.59%chance

332211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

930

Will Samo Burja create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.86%chance

13939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

741

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

16900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

795

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.78%chance

10860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

665

Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.34%chance

26698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

895

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

943

Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.09%chance

4245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

815

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Noah Smith create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.48%chance

10140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

937

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