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Transaction Value News

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8553432

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Paperclips

Gold (Au)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

65

33

22

14

9

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

3

1

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will the US abolish pennies (de facto) by 2030?

Jan 16, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.32%chance

428142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4108

261

Will Amazon accept cryptocurrency before December 31st 2028?

Mar 22, 9:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.95%chance

508112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

924

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.83%chance

202334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

731

97

Will Amazon accept cryptocurrency before December 31st 2033?

Mar 24, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.31%chance

352329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

701

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

770

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

If The One Ring changes hands again before 2030, will it be for 5 million dollars or greater?

Sep 11, 10:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

7175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

134

Will Uber take over Delivery Hero until end of 2026?

Aug 27, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.53%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?

Jun 19, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.97%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

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