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Transaction Value News

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7443529

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Paperclips

Manifold Mana

TRUMP

57

31

24

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

712

Will Amazon accept cryptocurrency before December 31st 2028?

Mar 22, 9:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.95%chance

508112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

924

Will the US abolish pennies (de facto) by 2030?

Jan 16, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.59%chance

427430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

255

Will Amazon accept cryptocurrency before December 31st 2033?

Mar 24, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.31%chance

352329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

701

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.02%chance

192324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

721

100

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will the two-sided platform facilitate at least 5,000 completed and paid ski and snowboard lesson bookings by 30.04.2027

Jan 9, 8:35 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

6%chance

10726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will the Lorxus Favor still be in active circulation as of the end of 2028?

Nov 22, 8:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75%chance

7215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

118

If The One Ring changes hands again before 2030, will it be for 5 million dollars or greater?

Sep 11, 10:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

7175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

134

Will the LP secondaries market be disintermediated by end of 2030?

Mar 25, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.69%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

55

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