OptionProbability
1+ days
30+ days
365+ days
180+ days
730+ days
1825+ days
0 days
100
62
46
22
0
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1175
865
Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027
May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027
September 1, 2027 or later
Before Jan 1, 2027
27
18
