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Prediction markets for Transformer

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

7938416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2767

566

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

63.21%chance

12925206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4205

3128

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

97.23%chance

7017863

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16538

904

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

8417347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3626

971

How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614746

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 30

Above 40

100

63

48

42

42

39

36

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.88%chance

3312803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4441

478

Are Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:23 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

45.19%chance

151318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

858

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

55.1%chance

6485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 49

50 - 100

Above 100

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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