Transformer architecture News

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]

Apr 24, 12:58 PMMar 22, 10:59 PM

372009

OptionProbability

Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines

The existence of the AGI and the model name were leaked prior to release and official announcement

Developed by a US company

Trained with synthetic data and self-play

Doomsday clock moved at least one full minute closer to midnight due to this AI

Transformer based or mix of Transformer and other architectures

Has an internal World Model able to simulate basic physics without external tools

Not available in EU countries initially for the first 4 months after public release

Based on/inspired by algorithms from the human brain (beyond neural networks).

Public announcement was made after 1 year or more of finishing training

Not a static model; weights change during inference

Used by a Figure humanoid robot

Infinite context window

Solves at least one of the seven Millennium Problems

This market will resolve N/A

Is OpenAI's GPT-6, whatever name or architecture it has

No consensus that it's AGI until over a month after being announced and interacting with people outside the lab.

Developed by a Chinese company

Open sourced

Based on/inspired by OpenAI's Sora (resolves YES if explicitly stated by developers in announcement or paper)

Developed by the open-source community instead of a company

Developed by an EU company

Is OpenAI's GPT-5, whatever name or architecture it has

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171684

OptionProbability

Transformer-based architecture

Developed by OpenAI

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Developed by Google Deepmind

Over 1T parameters

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81358

OptionProbability

Over 1T parameters

Transformer-based architecture

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Developed by OpenAI

Developed by Google Deepmind

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

44%chance

14952

OptionVotes

YES

682

441

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

1105

867

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Mar 12, 6:40 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

19463

OptionProbability

Robots

Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017

Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.

Quantum Computing

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Nov 17, 9:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

10372

OptionVotes

YES

232

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

240

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.29%chance

9144

OptionVotes

YES

672

558

Will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture?

Mar 19, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

231

163

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Transformer architecture News

Prediction markets for Transformer architecture

Prediction markets for Transformer architecture

Prediction markets for Transformer architecture

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Latest stories