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Transformer LM News
Prediction markets for Transformer LM
Prediction markets for Transformer LM
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
Jan 19, 5:08 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
53.29%
chance
78
35768
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2327
929
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)
Jan 19, 4:49 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
42.86%
chance
42
8456
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1222
715
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?
May 29, 11:10 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
70.34%
chance
39
4177
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1632
414
My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues
Mar 18, 7:47 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
59.22%
chance
6
92
Option
Votes
NO
YES
194
150
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