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Prediction markets for Transformer Models

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Feb 15, 7:31 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

261345

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

73

68

65

63

60

0

0

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

46.35%chance

12885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

704

414

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Nov 17, 9:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

10372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

96

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

55.31%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

179

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

46

35

11

7

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

103

Will an action transformer model [or Claude] make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Quora via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

Do you think Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models are generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:22 AM

160

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