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Transformer Models News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

95.27%chance

14240493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16726

1062

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

93.7%chance

467787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3551

176

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.69%chance

366957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15830

14208

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

Aug 29, 4:50 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

15.02%chance

181717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

767

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

67.57%chance

151249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

947

231

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Nov 17, 9:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

10372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

96

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

55.31%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

179

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

48

41

6

4

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

103

Will an action transformer model [or Claude] make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Quora via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

Do you think Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models are generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:22 AM

160

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