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Prediction markets for Transformers

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

53.29%chance

7835768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

929

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

61.69%chance

12925056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4055

3218

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

8417347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3626

971

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.22%chance

3310803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

618

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31550

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Are Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:23 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

45.19%chance

151318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

858

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

52.8%chance

5435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

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