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Prediction markets for Transformers

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4733

4397

How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

615646

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 30

Above 40

100

63

48

42

40

33

26

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?

May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.47%chance

614115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

679

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

44.17%chance

111172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

889

Will AGI come from a technology significantly more advanced than transformers?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.43%chance

19981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

903

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

44%chance

14952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

441

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

867

Will "Publishing academic papers on transformative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 10:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

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