Transformers One News
Prediction markets for Transformers One
How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀
Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1510936
OptionProbability
61
23
8
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?
Dec 27, 7:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
34.94%chance
8210702
OptionVotes
1152
512
OptionVotes
7399
135
Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?
Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
52.4%chance
367049
OptionVotes
15737
14292
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
75.68%chance
173564
OptionVotes
1159
926
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
79.08%chance
382747
OptionVotes
1720
680
Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?
Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
91%chance
231906
OptionVotes
2000
824
Will Luffy reveal "Gear 6" or a new major physical transformation in One Piece by the end of 2026?
Mar 30, 1:35 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
62.49%chance
171434
OptionVotes
129
77
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.09%chance
141245
OptionVotes
1275
784
Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?
Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
13.85%chance
16849
OptionVotes
1336
904
Will "Publishing academic papers on transformative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 4, 10:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
964