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Prediction markets for Transformers One

This is a solution to alignment.

Jul 26, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.09%chance

4429136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

501

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.57%chance

889441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

881

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Apr 11, 10:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.17%chance

292624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

887

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.18%chance

9660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

747

Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025?

Nov 20, 2:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.37%chance

5320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

777

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