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Prediction markets for Transgender

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.93%chance

305283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5711

1071

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.55%chance

634665

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

574

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.67%chance

673922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

841

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Sep 9, 11:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

273426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

254

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

23.73%chance

343206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

558

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

212415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

593

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?

Nov 15, 8:12 PMAug 16, 5:59 AM

79.35%chance

111608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

510

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

Nov 15, 8:10 PMFeb 16, 6:59 AM

81.44%chance

131593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2095

477

By 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?

Sep 18, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

14.83%chance

151095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

876

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.15%chance

251026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

975

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

70%chance

19692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

669

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