Transistor News

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.94%chance

349246

OptionVotes

YES

1076

503

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

421856

OptionVotes

YES

1242

876

In which year will Moore's Law come to an end? (If it ever does?)

Oct 7, 5:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

101038

OptionProbability

2023

2025

2028

2029

Other

2026

2030

2031

2032

2022

2027

Already happened before 2022 (please argue why)

2024

Not before 2033 (or at all)

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Dec 16, 7:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.13%chance

24760

OptionVotes

YES

1036

960

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

Nov 26, 6:21 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7490

OptionProbability

>= 8x optical zoom

>= 12 GB RAM

>= 6.85" display

a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port

>= 3 high-performance cores

>= 130% mAh battery of next-tier iPhone

greater optical zoom than next-tier iPhone

more high-performance cores than next-tier iPhone

2 TB storage option

>= 1.5x RAM of next-tier iPhone

Special LLM capabilities (e.g. extra cache for LLM weights near a Neural Engine)

>= 1.5x transistors of next-tier iPhone

No physical buttons https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/28/20th-anniversary-iphone-solid-state-buttons/

officially supports a desktop-like experience when used with external displays (~same web app experience as MacOS Safari)

a Thunderbolt 3 port

special LLM capabilities beyond next-tier iPhone. Just 2x inference volume wouldn't count.

split-screen multi-tasking

more external buttons than next-tier iPhone

a Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) chip

>= 2 USB-C ports

Touch ID

officially supports dual-booting MacOS

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Sep 20, 8:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.37%chance

13390

OptionVotes

YES

138

Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?

Feb 5, 5:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.03%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

256

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Apr 1, 10:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.16%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

240

113

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Apr 1, 10:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

219

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

106

Transistor News

Prediction markets for Transistor

Prediction markets for Transistor

Prediction markets for Transistor

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

In which year will Moore's Law come to an end? (If it ever does?)

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

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