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Top stories

Google Translate Adds AI Live Conversations and Language Practice, Challenging Duolingo

Authors

12

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Translate

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

Will AI translators be as good as humans before 2030?

Nov 10, 8:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

93.33%chance

192039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2509

797

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.29%chance

301819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

966

When will human translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

14.28%chance

241489

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1297

1143

Will Animal Communication be Translated by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.71%chance

191191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

849

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.82%chance

2288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

960

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

17

17

17

17

17

17

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