Transparency News

NO

YES

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9

Above 12

Above 15

Above 18

At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)

By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements

However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.

After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.

Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.

A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026

Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.

Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?

The 10 possible "co-conspirators" of Epstein are revealed

At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files

George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026

Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.

Somebody gets prison time

"Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26

Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein

Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files

An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act

Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known

Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein

At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

YES

YES

The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.

It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.

The basic premise of the site is too complicated for people, who prefer to use simpler dating apps.

The concept of gambling on romance is unappealing to most people.

Too few people are interested in trading on random people's matches

It just never ends up taking off, without any particular flaw being the obvious cause

It is never able to get a critical mass of active profiles.

People don't think strangers are more qualified to choose matches for them than themselves

Not enough rationalussy

Other

extreme "everything is public" approach alienates userbase

Manifold as a whole shuts down without it ever having taken off

Unpopular combo of excessive transparency imposed on users / lack of transparency from staff

James pivots to something else

Everyone on earth finds love

people leave the site after finding a match

lack of moderation / lots of harassment make the platform unpleasant to be on

Stripe threatens to stop processing payments

(threat of) legal action

another dating app captures our target audience

It is never able to get a critical mass of good SREs.

It allows minors to join and gets bad PR or legal issues as a result

Messaging failure: The unique value proposition is clear, predictive market match making, however the deliverable does not appear to be clear. Manifold.love could be calibrated to deliver hook-ups or long-term relationships, not both.

Markets are not predictive due to difficulty measuring or defining outcomes, or due to low probability of outcomes

The administration team proves incapable of writing or enforcing rules that effectively keep members safe, and this causes some form of scandal.

All the good dates join @Mira 's cult and the remainder are left to suffer alone - wailing and gnashing their teeth as incels.

YES

YES

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Banning Super PACs

Public Financing for Candidates

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

NO