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Prediction markets for Transparent Generations

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.04%chance

508725007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16811

12177

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.77%chance

282109566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

893

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.09%chance

6520447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1946

515

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

6.38%chance

497269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

AI generates full movie before 2027?

Aug 3, 11:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.18%chance

212844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

406

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.36%chance

182634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3311

302

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

88

8

4

Will any male US Citizen be convicted of a sex crime related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation?

Feb 27, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.8%chance

10286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will I be able to generate a better ending to Game of Thrones by the end of 2028?

Oct 4, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.74%chance

5229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

918

How many more pages of the Epstein files will be released in 2026?

Mar 13, 2:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10112

OptionProbability

0-1 million

2-2.4 million

1-2 million

2.5 million or more

57

19

13

10

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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