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Prediction markets for Transparent Generations

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

506724947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16828

12117

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9318942

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2035+

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

32

19

10

10

9

8

4

3

2

2

0

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

19.3%chance

455119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

AI generates full movie before 2027?

Aug 3, 11:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.18%chance

212844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

406

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

152279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2956

338

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will any male US Citizen be convicted of a sex crime related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation?

Feb 27, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.77%chance

7166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

How many more pages of the Epstein files will be released in 2026?

Mar 13, 2:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8101

OptionProbability

0-1 million

2-2.4 million

1-2 million

2.5 million or more

56

19

13

12

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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