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Prediction markets for Transparent Generations

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6310116

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2031

2035+

2032

2027

2033

2026

2034

2025

20

15

13

12

11

8

7

6

4

3

1

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

15.7%chance

444024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2317

432

AI generates full movie before 2027?

Aug 3, 11:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

182643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2379

420

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Feb 15, 6:22 AMDec 31, 6:19 AM

232498

OptionProbability

Nothing other than the actual pizza food

Interactions with (incl. sexual exploitation of) underage girls

Other

Child exploitation materials

Adrenochrome

49

23

15

10

3

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Is a major protest(s) expected to occur in Indonesia before September 2026?

Mar 17, 6:53 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the NPP win any seats in the 2028 Legislative elections?

Jan 14, 4:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.69%chance

317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

80

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