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Prediction markets for Treasuries

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

3110561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

1984

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1949

513

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

23.39%chance

101448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

552

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

91014

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

90

8

1

1

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.16%chance

6553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1229

814

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

May 27, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.29%chance

15516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

382

139

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.41%chance

3358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

773

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.16%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

Will Gary Gensler ever be US Secretary of the Treasury?

Jan 16, 3:20 AMJan 23, 5:59 AM

13.57%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

34

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

28.24%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?

Jan 3, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.87%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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