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Prediction markets for Trending

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.33%chance

642683383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5168

5045

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Apr 29, 12:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

89.06%chance

403107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

562

Will EA sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040?

Nov 15, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.26%chance

412853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2108

822

After the 2026 midterms, will I feel like US culture has trended towards greater wokeness in the 2 years prior?

Jan 3, 8:19 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

22.12%chance

121435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1876

533

Will “woke (topic)” be more popular in the US on Google Trends five years from now than today?

Jun 4, 8:20 PMJun 5, 3:59 AM

23.89%chance

121321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

560

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.36%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

665

Google Trends: Will "bitcoin" search hit all-time high before 2030?

Feb 5, 9:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.35%chance

7819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Will CS degrees trend down?

Mar 20, 10:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28.41%chance

22524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

980

Will public sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040?

Nov 15, 6:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.67%chance

14496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

943

Which year will the book-banning trend reverse?

Apr 8, 3:26 PMApr 11, 6:59 AM

13410

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2028-2029

2033-2034

2027-2028

2034-2035

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

15

15

12

11

10

10

8

7

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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