OptionProbability
Vacant House seats at start of term
Market chaos
Bonus market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Any member seated who was not the winner
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Any member-elect changes parties
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
54
52
48
46
39
37
34
33
31
28
22
18
16
12
3
2027
2026
2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.
2028
2029
40
21
17
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
244
41
300
1073
932
145
69
