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Prediction markets for Trip

When will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?

Jul 9, 4:38 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

95641

OptionProbability

before the end of 2030

before the end of 2028

before the end of 2029

before the end of 2027

before the end of 2026

before the end of 2024

before the end of 2025

41

35

35

33

8

0

0

Will the crew of the Integrity spacecraft survive the trip?

Nov 2, 7:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.74%chance

205299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3871

258

Total number of alcohol beverages consumed on the Round Table boys trip to Nashville in March 2026

Jan 14, 5:45 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

61759

OptionProbability

Above 50

Above 100

Above 150

Above 200

Above 250

Above 400

Above 300

Above 350

99

99

99

99

82

47

36

12

Trump's last international trip

May 13, 11:41 AMJan 20, 12:38 PM

81191

OptionProbability

Other

UK

Canada

Israel

71

11

11

7

When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London?

Mar 3, 12:06 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

91065

OptionProbability

Later than June 2027

Mar-Apr 2027

May-Jun 2027

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Jan-Feb 2027

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026 (or earlier)

38

19

10

9

9

9

5

3

In what year will EVs surpass gas cars' cost/convenience for road trips?

Mar 28, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

2027

After 2030

2028

2029

2030

2026

2025

22

19

18

15

13

12

1

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

13.2%chance

21864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

973

By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100

Jan 7, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.78%chance

15570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

916

When will the first fully unmanned coast to coast truck freight trip be completed in the US?

Jan 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5377

OptionProbability

2028

2032 or later or never

2027

2029

2030

2031

2026

24

21

16

12

12

10

6

Ferry from Miami to Cuba available taking less than 12 hours for the trip in the 2020s?

Jan 1, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.04%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

834

Uber-Wayne self-driving cars do 1000 London trips by EOY2026?

Jun 11, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

52

Will "Estrogen: A trip report" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 6:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

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