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Prediction markets for Trip Planning

What issues will I experience with my Tesla in the first 5 years of ownership

Jun 8, 8:29 PMJun 14, 8:22 PM

41503

OptionProbability

Misc. sensors

Tire replacement

On-board charger replacement

Suspension link or half-shaft

12V battery

Door handles

A/C compressor failure

Charge port door or latch repair

window regulator replacement

Media control unit or screen replacement

drive-unit / inverter replacement

High voltage traction battery pack

100

65

31

31

31

20

20

20

20

14

8

5

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?

Mar 25, 8:19 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

63.56%chance

20906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

168

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide at the box office than the first film?

Mar 10, 2:33 PMMar 3, 1:29 PM

49.69%chance

12675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

212

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

4305

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

SF

NYC

25

15

13

13

13

11

11

Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more than $1 Billion worldwide?

Mar 10, 2:35 PMMar 3, 1:29 PM

67.7%chance

9204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

128

Will I beat Emily in the 2023-2028 BMI War?

Apr 23, 9:44 PMApr 24, 6:59 AM

74.95%chance

6186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

59

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Dec 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.5%chance

10144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Roadtrip: Gulf leg favorite state

Jan 10, 3:40 AMApr 2, 2:29 AM

475

OptionProbability

Louisiana (TBD)

Alabama (resolves NO if I don't have a non-Auburn stop)

Mississippi (TBD)

Arkansas (TBD)

33

24

22

21

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