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Prediction markets for Trip Planning

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

46.63%chance

213403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

613

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

152322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2570

389

What issues will I experience with my Tesla in the first 5 years of ownership

Jun 8, 8:29 PMJun 14, 8:22 PM

41503

OptionProbability

Misc. sensors

Tire replacement

On-board charger replacement

Suspension link or half-shaft

12V battery

Door handles

A/C compressor failure

Charge port door or latch repair

window regulator replacement

Media control unit or screen replacement

drive-unit / inverter replacement

High voltage traction battery pack

100

100

31

31

31

20

20

20

20

14

8

5

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Dec 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.9%chance

191242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

236

Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?

Mar 25, 8:19 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

62.69%chance

22956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

171

Pope Leon XIV in Argentina before 2027

Oct 19, 2:55 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

98.98%chance

15713

OptionVotes

NO

YES

413

1

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7532

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

Seattle

NYC

23

17

14

14

12

10

10

Will Trump, Xi and Putin hold a three-way in-person meeting by November 22, 2026?

Oct 15, 6:23 PMNov 22, 11:59 PM

20.56%chance

12352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

86

Will I beat Emily in the 2023-2028 BMI War?

Apr 23, 9:44 PMApr 24, 6:59 AM

74.95%chance

6186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

59

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2026

2027

2028

20

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

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