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Prediction markets for Trojanized

Ukraine conducts another Trojan-style attack before 2026?

Jun 2, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.83%chance

363234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

590

"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028

Jun 6, 5:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.33%chance

13488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will any of the following malwares infect my MacBook in 2025?

Oct 3, 6:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5340

OptionProbability

None

Any virus from crack/pirated games

Spyware

Police virus

A virus that disguises itself as real media (like AccuWeather.exe, HBOFamily.exe or ESPN.exe)

Trojan horse

87

11

10

10

10

9

Will Xubuntu have another security incident as bad as the trojaned torrent downloads by EoY 2026?

Oct 23, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.79%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

34

28

14

11

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will "Trojan Sky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 17, 6:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.44%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

754

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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