Troubles News

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM

7.22%chance

8256327

OptionVotes

YES

35855

2789

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

YES

10424

9668

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

17554

5697

APUSH cheater prop bets

Apr 25, 9:36 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

379743

OptionProbability

gets in any kind of trouble

gets caught

is discorevered by the end of the school year (6/5)

has it p1

is female

is male

is chinese

is indian

got their answers from a higher grade level

has it p2

confesses

gets suspended

not chinese or indian

gets expelled

is discovered by the end of next week (5/1)

Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?

Jul 16, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

76.35%chance

858798

OptionVotes

YES

1797

557

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

3090

324

Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?

Jan 2, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.23%chance

20608

OptionVotes

YES

172

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

1096

933

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

Aug 25, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.72%chance

12337

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 14, 3:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.59%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

185

117

What is the best way to organize a radical retirement polycule collective to ensure mutual support through the troubles?

Oct 9, 2:46 PM

Troubles News

Prediction markets for Troubles

Prediction markets for Troubles

Prediction markets for Troubles

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

APUSH cheater prop bets

Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

What is the best way to organize a radical retirement polycule collective to ensure mutual support through the troubles?

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