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Prediction markets for Trust

Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

96.45%chance

194936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

927

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 31, 3:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94.28%chance

243004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

936

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

6.37%chance

391227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

881

What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?

Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

14507

OptionProbability

Settlement

Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

Dismissal / dropped

Mistrial

56

23

11

5

5

Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?

Apr 21, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6157

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google Deepmind

xAI

Deepseek

Open AI

76

64

24

19

17

Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?

May 14, 8:16 AMOct 1, 7:00 AM

67.61%chance

7112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

60

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

How many meals will the Trussel Trust provide in 2026/27?

Jan 5, 8:40 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

40.72%chance

13

OptionProbability

NO

YES

273

266

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