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Prediction markets for Trust

Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

95.94%chance

215007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 31, 3:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94.54%chance

253054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

933

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

6.37%chance

391227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

881

What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?

Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

161108

OptionProbability

Settlement

Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

Dismissal / dropped

Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

Mistrial

60

28

7

3

3

If entire humanity were to trust a single nation for total control of all nukes, who would win such a global poll?

Dec 28, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

241091

OptionProbability

Other

Japan

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Gaza

Argentina

Bhutan

None of the above / nobody can be trusted

Antarctiaca/UN/other such orgs

USA

India

New Zealand

China

EU

Ireland

Vatican City

Singapore

16

12

11

11

11

10

7

5

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?

Apr 21, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9180

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google Deepmind

Deepseek

Open AI

xAI

80

64

19

17

17

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

How many meals will the Trussel Trust provide in 2026/27?

Jan 5, 8:40 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

40.72%chance

13

OptionProbability

NO

YES

273

266

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