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Prediction markets for Trust

Will I Experience a Material Change in Living Situation Due to the Executive Order on the Presidio Trust by End of 2025?

Feb 20, 3:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.53%chance

83765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4589

218

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

51512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

453

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

8.85%chance

37726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

920

Will "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Mar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 7, 12:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.17%chance

3512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

935

Will "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 10:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 10:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.26%chance

4270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

305

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will zero trust networking be considered less secure in the tech industry?

May 1, 6:53 PMMay 2, 6:45 PM

36.04%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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