Trust News
Prediction markets for Trust
OptionVotes
2433
411
Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?
Oct 31, 3:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
94.28%chance
243004
OptionVotes
1041
936
Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?
Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
94.47%chance
102221
OptionVotes
1181
927
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?
Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM
6.37%chance
391227
OptionVotes
1810
881
If entire humanity were to trust a single nation for total control of all nukes, who would win such a global poll?
Dec 28, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
241091
OptionProbability
16
12
11
11
11
10
7
5
5
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?
Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM
14507
OptionProbability
56
23
11
5
5
Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Apr 21, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9180
OptionProbability
80
64
19
17
17
Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?
May 14, 8:16 AMOct 1, 7:00 AM
67.61%chance
7112
OptionVotes
152
60
[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"
Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
5105
OptionProbability
80
67
60
34
22
Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.32%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
992
How many meals will the Trussel Trust provide in 2026/27?
Jan 5, 8:40 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM
40.72%chance
13
OptionProbability
273
266