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Prediction markets for Trust

Will I Experience a Material Change in Living Situation Due to the Executive Order on the Presidio Trust by End of 2025?

Feb 20, 3:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.53%chance

83765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4589

218

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 31, 3:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.41%chance

232654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

963

691

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will Vanguard allow users to buy iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) or other spot cryptocurrency ETF's before the end of 2025?

Jan 11, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

151100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

714

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

8.85%chance

37726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

920

Will "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Mar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 7, 12:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.17%chance

3512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

935

Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 10:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.26%chance

4270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

305

Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.8%chance

3252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

946

Will Lina Kahn and the FTC win a major anti trust case against any big tech company before 2026?

Jan 15, 1:35 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

21.36%chance

8150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

56

Will "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 10:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

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