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Prediction markets for Trust

Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

96.45%chance

194936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

927

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 31, 3:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94.28%chance

243004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

936

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

6.31%chance

381226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

880

If entire humanity were to trust a single nation for total control of all nukes, who would win such a global poll?

Dec 28, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

241091

OptionProbability

Other

Japan

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Gaza

Argentina

Bhutan

None of the above / nobody can be trusted

Antarctiaca/UN/other such orgs

USA

India

New Zealand

China

EU

Ireland

Vatican City

Singapore

16

12

11

11

11

10

7

5

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?

Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

14507

OptionProbability

Settlement

Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

Dismissal / dropped

Mistrial

56

23

11

5

5

Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?

Apr 21, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6157

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google Deepmind

xAI

Deepseek

Open AI

76

64

24

19

17

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will zero trust networking be considered less secure in the tech industry?

May 1, 6:53 PMMay 2, 6:45 PM

36.04%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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