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Top stories

ICE Makes 1,600 Long Island Arrests, Widens Crackdown in Connecticut

US Domestic Policy

ICE Makes 1,600 Long Island Arrests, Widens Crackdown in Connecticut

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Trust Act

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Jul 31, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4317077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3694

560

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.84%chance

231137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

872

Will another country support Venezuela militarily?

Jan 5, 4:33 PMDec 31, 4:30 PM

6.45%chance

131065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

26

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting

May 9, 1:20 AMJan 1, 2:19 AM

79.63%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

857

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Sep 2, 4:46 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

13452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

876

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?

Jun 7, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.53%chance

13302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

94

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

17%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?

Jun 11, 11:09 AMJul 29, 6:58 AM

31%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

94

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