TRY News

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.19%chance

427102536

OptionVotes

YES

1905

589

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

2735

366

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.56%chance

632630

OptionVotes

YES

1140

925

Will Trump try to have his face engraved on Mt Rushmore during his second term?

Mar 28, 2:21 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

19.38%chance

232296

OptionVotes

YES

2039

490

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

1811

587

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

421303

OptionVotes

YES

1266

930

In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?

Feb 1, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.05%chance

14739

OptionVotes

YES

1090

910

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

21%chance

12738

OptionVotes

YES

1361

865

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

YES

1054

965

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

53.16%chance

9475

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

TRY News

Prediction markets for TRY

Prediction markets for TRY

Prediction markets for TRY

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Will Trump try to have his face engraved on Mt Rushmore during his second term?

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

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