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Prediction markets for TRY

Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

21.25%chance

35776126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

606

Trump tries to fire Powell before September 1?

Jul 13, 2:57 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.42%chance

7315028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4015

692

Will Iran try to assassinate Trump?

Feb 4, 10:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

186263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.07%chance

592516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

947

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

25.53%chance

171914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

586

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.73%chance

271148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

934

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.66%chance

411103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

939

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.02%chance

24814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

900

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

907

Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?

Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.12%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

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