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Trump tries to serve a third term?

Mar 31, 11:44 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

23.99%chance

38787944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1688

650

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.07%chance

592516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

947

Will Trump express interest or try to acquire the Realm of New Zealand or part of it?

Jan 20, 7:20 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM

10.33%chance

92070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

938

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1811

587

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

311318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

953

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.83%chance

25828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

919

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

907

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

59.93%chance

7280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM

51.44%chance

392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

1022

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