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Prediction markets for Turing AI
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.56%chance
946604484
OptionVotes
11087
8923
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.54%chance
5427446
OptionVotes
1057
771
OptionVotes
1402
713
6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.
Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
70.97%chance
142307
OptionVotes
1564
640
In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
Mar 28, 8:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
152190
OptionProbability
11
10
9
7
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
1196
902
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end?
Aug 25, 12:41 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
14.53%chance
15684
OptionVotes
986
939
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.62%chance
12670
OptionVotes
1288
777
Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
Feb 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
78.98%chance
29524
OptionVotes
1247
907
Which AI model will first pass the Longbets version of the Turing test?
Apr 3, 10:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
18444
OptionProbability
73
10
7
6
4
From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?
Aug 28, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8282
OptionProbability
58
24
7
6
4
Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?
Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
59.2%chance
15282
OptionVotes
1087
929