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Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.76%chance

165140963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2677

571

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?

Apr 13, 2:26 AMDec 7, 8:01 AM

1.28%chance

4812912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7328

752

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Did Israel execute unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason?

Dec 24, 8:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.27%chance

734109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

828

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?

May 25, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.74%chance

211620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

965

How many albums will Taylor Swift release before the age of 40?

Apr 30, 10:06 PMDec 14, 7:59 AM

69.14%chance

16974

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1098

923

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

Will Quentin Tarantino direct more than 10 films?

Apr 23, 6:54 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.52%chance

19394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

978

923

Dick Van Dyke turned 98 on 12/13/23. Will he live to see his 100th birthday?

Dec 18, 6:32 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

74%chance

8207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

45

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