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Prediction markets for Twitch

Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 2:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.02%chance

3814626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6218

334

If Destiny gets unbanned on Twitch will he regularly stream on Twitch?

Nov 22, 8:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.91%chance

5913954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

663

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3696

271

Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026?

Feb 26, 12:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.68%chance

214901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4511

222

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

214489

OptionProbability

Q1 2026 or earlier

Q4 2025 or earlier

Q3 2025 or earlier

Q1 2024

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

50

32

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Feb 27, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

122458

OptionProbability

Claude 4

GPT 5

Gemini 3

Claude 4.5

Kimi-K2 Thinking

GPT 5.5

Claude 5

Grok 4

Deepseek R2

Grok 3

Gemini 2 Flash Thinking

DeepSeek R1

Kimi-K2

GPT 4.5

Llama 4

100

100

100

100

34

24

24

8

6

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Hasan Piker / HasanAbi have an average Twitch viewership of 20,000 or less at the end of 2025?

Jan 4, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

112058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

51512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

453

Will Hasan Piker be banned from Twitch before 2026?

Jul 4, 12:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.82%chance

191250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

Will Amazon still own Twitch at the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.83%chance

15475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

971

942

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.47%chance

7410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

709

Will Jose Luis Ricon twitch or YouTube a let's play video by EPY2027

Aug 25, 12:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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