UFO News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.02%chance

8747983090

OptionVotes

YES

18686

8824

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

82159202

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.68%chance

54122547

OptionVotes

YES

966

910

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10048142

OptionVotes

YES

1560

1107

Will skywatcher.ai (an UFO summoning company) be considered legitimate at the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 3:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4%chance

3318248

OptionVotes

YES

4899

204

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

525974

OptionProbability

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Aliens

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Jan 27, 3:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

52572

OptionVotes

YES

2767

100

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

39.76%chance

271453

OptionVotes

YES

994

984

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

YES

1006

706

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

21.11%chance

16658

OptionVotes

YES

1286

895

Chemicals with unknown properties found to play large role in UFOs by 2050

Jun 7, 6:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.24%chance

13509

OptionVotes

YES

1171

944

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will skywatcher.ai (an UFO summoning company) be considered legitimate at the end of 2025?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Chemicals with unknown properties found to play large role in UFOs by 2050

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